It was Saturday morning, June 23rd. I’m still in bed, when I read the news on my phone. Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s ill-tempered boss, appeared to be staging a coup – a brazen move. So much so, that I can hardly believe what I’m reading. Only after reading multiple, reliable sources corroborating the events, was I convinced this wasn’t some made up internet prank.
The articles reported that the Russians had launched a rocket attack against the Wagner forces, igniting Prigozhin’s rebellion. By the time the news got to me, Rostov-on-Don, an important military site, had already fallen under Wagner’s control. It seemed utterly surreal. Challenging Vladimir Putin head-on? The man who’s known for silencing his critics through various, mysterious accidents? And if that’s what happens in the case of ever so slight criticism, imagine the consequences of staging a full-blown coup against him.
Given Prigozhin’s awareness of the risks involved, I surmised that he must have felt cornered… and instead of waiting for an inevitable attack upon his life, he decided to strike first. At least, that was my interpretation.
Did I give him much chance of winning? Not immediately. Upon reading the initial reports, I envisioned Rostov-on-Don being bombarded, followed by Russian soldiers quashing the rebellion. In other words, I anticipated bloodshed. Obviously, my prediction proved inaccurate. The Wagner soldiers moved towards Moscow, with no one capable (or willing) to halt their advance. The helicopters the Russians sent, were promptly shot out of the air by Wagner’s weaponry. According to the media, Prigozhin commanded an army of twenty-five thousand soldiers. Now, twenty-five thousand might not seem that much, but remember: this is a force of battle-hardened warriors, who had burned all bridges behind them. And with the Russians still engaging the Ukrainians, Putin had to face a hard decision.
Meanwhile, the media showed how the Russian government was handling Moscow’s defence: moving a handful of bridges, blocking roads, policemen putting up makeshift guard posts, and soldiers lying prone on the grass, rifles at the ready. That might be sufficient to deter a handful of football hooligans, but it hardly seems enough to discourage twenty-five thousand barbarians ready to enter your city. Worse, Putin didn’t seem to get much support from his followers. Only after many hours into this mess, did the Chechen Kadyrov decide to help Putin, only for his forces to arrive in a traffic jam. For the most part, it seemed that everyone was satisfied to let the coup play out and looking at the eventual outcome.
Prigozhin’s fortunes had taken a dramatic turn. The vast distances that initially worked against him, now played to his advantage. Winning the battle to take Moscow, suddenly seemed doable. What he’d do afterwards? No idea. It’s not as if conquering Moscow immediately makes you Russia’s new leader. Nevertheless, I was curious to find out what would happen. Did the Wagner boss possess another card up his sleeve? Or would Putin’s loyalists succumb to apathy, swaying towards Prigozhin’s cause? Perhaps this was the lucky stroke we needed, for this foolish war to finally come to an end.
Of course, it didn’t quite play out like that. Prigozhin ended up surrendering, retreating to Belarus. However, I did find something valuable in this entire experience. Because despite reading plenty of history books, I found it difficult to fully comprehend how it feels to the political landscape change so suddenly. Watching the inconceivable turn into reality – without warning. It made me wonder what it felt like to see the Berlin Wall falling, to the average citizen. Or even further back in time, watching Napoleon seize power. Let me be clear, none of this is an endorsement towards Prigozhin; the man likely has commited many, many crimes.
Here’s my point. One moment, we see an immovable object and we truly believe it is immovable. Then we see what happens when it’s confronted by an irresistible force… and it turns out it’s not quite so immovable after all. Countless figures in history have discovered this. And usually it didn’t take some unfathomable genius to do so. So if we want to make something of our lives: aim high, set up a plan (it doesn’t even need to be complicated) and execute it as if your life depends upon it. Food for thought!
Kind regards
Vincent J. Dancet
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