As I sit down to write this column, I can’t help but feel like we’re living in one of those old James Bond movies. The world has taken a dramatic turn, and honestly, I didn’t expect things to go so smoothly. But that’s the unpredictability that comes with having a megalomaniac leader at the helm. In this case, I’m referring to the current Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his invasion of Ukraine.
In the days leading up to this conflict, there were plenty of so-called “experts” confidently stating that Russia would never invade Ukraine, citing cost-benefit analyses. It sounded reasonable at the time, but it’s become clear that even the experts can get it wrong, reminding us that predicting the future is a challenging endeavor, even for the most informed among us. This is precisely why I prefer to stick to discussing topics I’m well-versed in, and I encourage you to do the same. And even then, it’s essential to regularly question ourselves because self-deception is all too easy.
Allow me to illustrate this point with an anecdote. Some years ago, I used to follow a YouTube news show about American politics hosted by an incredibly confident anchor who always seemed to have the perfect solutions. When the Democrats faced election losses, he confidently outlined what they should have done to win, and he regularly made political predictions. About half the time, he turned out to be right, which he would trumpet with great fanfare. As for the predictions that fell flat, well, he conveniently swept those under the rug. Over time, his ego swelled, but his charisma and humor managed to keep his audience engaged. Then, he decided to dip his toes into politics, running for office in an election. Unfortunately for him, it turned into a colossal failure, garnering him only a few percentage points in the vote tally.
Upon returning to his news anchor job, he discussed his misadventure with his co-host, who was curious about what went wrong. His revelation was both amusing and somewhat enlightening. He claimed he had put in the effort, met countless people, and proposed solid policies. However, most people in the district didn’t even know who he was, making it challenging to secure votes. This was his great epiphany: the public votes for the politician they know best and trust most, not necessarily for the best policy proposals.
One might admire his willingness to give politics a shot, but here’s the punchline: he presented this revelation as if he’d unearthed a profound, hidden truth. His female co-host, with a wry smile, pointed out that it was simply “name recognition” – something you learn about in your first year at university. Oops. It’s one thing to have heard of a concept, but there’s a vast chasm between that and fully grasping its implications it seems.
Have you ever felt like you knew everything, only to hit a wall and be forced to reevaluate yourself? That phenomenon is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Before you laugh at the news anchor’s political misadventure, remember that there’s a good chance you’ll encounter it yourself sooner or later.
Before I wrap up this column, let’s reflect on the current state of the world. It seems like we’ve entered a period of greater turbulence compared to the previous decade, and this trend might persist. We’ve enjoyed relative peace and tranquility, which can sometimes lead us to take it for granted. The mere suggestion of a threat to our idyllic existence serves as a stark reminder of its value. The future is uncertain, and we must grapple with the possibility of soaring inflation, new pandemics, or even a world leader pushing the dreaded red button.
In the midst of all this uncertainty, remember that some things are immune to being lost or taken away. Consider investing in knowledge, skills, and the wealth of experiences shared by the people around you. These are the intangible assets that can see you through the storm. Food for thought.
Kind regards
Vincent J. Dancet